We all know better than to base our preseason perceptions on what happened last year but inevitably we find there is no other choice when it comes to making a prediction of how the coming year will play out. It’s as soon as that first kick off starts that we can start rewriting the current year’s script. At this time last year, most believed Auburn would be lucky to make it to a bowl game, Baylor would be in trouble without RGIII, and that Texas and USC were dark horse contenders for the national title game. That Auburn would be in the championship game, that Baylor would be just as good without RGIII, that Texas and USC would lose their coaches weren’t foreseeable. Okay, maybe Texas and USC having new coaches wasn’t that far-fetched.
We entered this weekend with a different concept entirely. Now we are trying to figure out which four teams will make the playoffs. This weekend’s collection of games, (which is still going on as I write this), did nothing to clear up any picture as to what four teams would make the playoff. Florida State won a tough game against Oklahoma State and I am left with that I need more information about both. I could see one, both, or neither in the playoff based on that game. Alabama, which sits comfortably at #2, struggled all night with a West Virginia team that was simply horrible last year. All the issues that kept Alabama out of the championship game last year were still very much prevalent this year. The Tide entered the season with question marks at quarterback and how it would play under new offensive coordinator, Lane Kiffin. The early answer is that the Alabama offense will be just fine. The problem is and has been that Alabama is a team struggling on defense. The short answer, based on last night, is that if Alabama can’t fix its defense, it shouldn’t expect to make any final four scenario.
Defending SEC champ, Auburn struggled against Arkansas. Arkansas was winless in SEC play last year. Is Auburn not as good as last year or is Arkansas much improved? My guess is that Arkansas is a much improved team. Continuing in SEC play, Thursday night provided a bit of shocks. South Carolina faced off against Texas A&M. South Carolina was a preseason top ten team and the prevailing thought was that Texas A&M would have a year of adjustment without Johnny Football to carry them through the season. TAMU, like Baylor the year before, carried on without Manziel and proceeded to dump South Carolina to the tune of 52-28. This was Texas A&M’s announcement to the SEC West that they expect to be a part of the conversation. Thursday night also had a very strange result in SEC land with Vanderbilt’s loss to Temple. It’s hard to envision a worse start for freshman coach Derek Mason. Temple was the bottom dweller of the AAC last year. They managed only two wins all season. It’s doubtful that Temple has improved to such a level that it can drop a mid-tier SEC team 35-7. The only other possibility is that Vanderbilt is in for a long season and possibly one that ends winless. Mason could feasibly be out in one year. Vanderbilt can’t afford to be patient and that may wind up leading to Mason’s quick demise. If there were two teams in the SEC that might make it to the end, LSU and Georgia looked great. Put an asterisk next to LSU as they only looked great for the fourth quarter, but they beat Wisconsin in a comeback victory and most of their mistakes in the first three quarters appeared to be due to opening game sloppiness. Georgia faced off against Clemson. Clemson has been mentioned a lot in the preseason as a team that could sneak into the final four. The first half was an offensive shootout but in the second half, Georgia, whose defense had been suspect all last year, managed to get a handle on Clemson. Based on an opening weekend game, Georgia appears to have a clear path to getting to Atlanta and representing the East.
Two teams who managed victories in the opening weekend and who are breathing sighs of relief are Ohio State and Notre Dame. Ohio State was a top five team entering the season but with Braxton Miller’s season ending injury, many think Ohio State is going to have real problems down the line. OSU managed to top Navy 34-17 and this means that Urban Meyer has more time to get his offense to gel under redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett. The concern for OSU is not that Barrett isn’t up to the task but that he has been thrown into the role with so little time before the season starts. If Ohio State doesn’t have a great season, it will most likely not fall squarely on the injury of Miller as OSU allowed Navy to amass 370 yards on the ground. Notre Dame was heavily favored against Rice and managed to win big but the first half was a struggle for the Irish. The opener against Rice marked the return of Everett Golson who didn’t play last year because of disciplinary issues. Notre Dame sorely missed him last year. This was a year that Irish fans felt could be a return to the heights of 2012 but Notre Dame was without five players and is currently embroiled in an academic scandal. Brian Kelly has a monumental task in getting his team to stay focused this year as most think the academic scandal will be a continual distraction throughout the year.
Another team that has been a lot of people’s pick to be a surprise team this year is UCLA. UCLA opened up against Virginia beating them 28-20. UCLA managed to get the victory but there was nothing in their eight point victory over the Cavaliers that seemed impressive enough to signal that UCLA was ready to rise to the top of the PAC 12. Other PAC 12 powers, Oregon and Stanford opened up with easy games that really told us nothing.
Okay, starting next week and each week thereafter, I am going to name four teams that I think would be in the playoffs. This is going to be based on their performance throughout the year and will not take into account their rankings. For obvious reasons, these will be wildly inaccurate in the first part of the season. THESE ARE NOT PREDICTIONS FOR THE END OF THE YEAR. My four team selection will be based solely on what has happened so far and if the playoff were today. As an example, for this week, I would only include teams that faced off in premier games so Oklahoma, Oregon, Stanford, Ohio State, Notre Dame, etc would not be considered. I am not naming four teams this week because I am really hard-pressed to come up with four teams based on the games through Saturday night. Florida State would be in but from there I am stumped. The teams I would choose from to make up the other three would be Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU, Oklahoma State, and Wisconsin. Yes, there are a lot of SEC teams in there and yes, I have two teams that lost their openers but like the committee, I am going to look at the body of work. I was impressed with both Oklahoma State and Wisconsin in their losses and based on what I saw, I expect both to challenge for their respective conference titles. As for the three SEC teams, they each faced stiff competition in Week one and won their games.
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