Looking ahead to the 2034 Season

It’s hard to imagine that anything could top the crazy ending of 2033. No one could have imagined that 10^th place Clemson would win it all. The FBS1 title was taken by Clemson in dramatic fashion. Kudos to UCF for their FBS2 victory as well. Their FBS2 Championship should really help them build their trust funds for their players and we all know that is the number one factor in recruiting. If they keep it up, they could garner a spot in the FBS1. I know we’re all thinking Rutgers is on their way out. We all see how the rich get richer in this game. I doubt most of you are aware but the AP Poll came out earlier this week. I’m probably showing my age a little bit but I remember when the polls came out and well it was a pretty big deal. Not so much anymore. To quote coach Luck, “polls are an old man’s folly.”

Obviously, most would agree that college football is as good as it has ever been. Tonight, let’s take a look back at the perfect storm that finally led to what many believe is the perfection of the greatest game. I think I would be remiss to say that the playoff was the starting point. For years it was a much sought after goal and for a long time it seemed unattainable but here we are celebrating the twenty year anniversary of the playoffs. Who back in 2014 could have imagined how much the decision to have a playoff could have changed the game and how it could have grown into the spectacle that it is today.

I think 2014 was a perfect storm in a lot of ways. The Power Five conferences received autonomy. At first it was almost ceremonial but today, the Power Five autonomy is wholly separate from the NCAA. I guess it would be remiss to mention that back then the Power Five was somewhat chaotic. Some conferences had fourteen teams others had ten, some had championship games where others didn’t. From this chaos, a committee was forced to choose four teams. In 2014, this was thought to be an easy task but there was surprisingly more controversy than was expected. Finally in 2021, the Power Five agreed to realign their conferences and restructure the playoffs to what they are now. The conferences all expanded to 16 teams, now known as the Super 5. The five champions of the Super Five automatically advanced. Each conference is then eligible to place their second ranked teams as decided by their conference committees. The ninth and tenth ranked teams play the seventh and eighth ranked teams to play in to the eight team playoff. The ACC’s selection of Clemson last year was questionable as Virginia had played a tougher schedule and had won their division but the blowout loss to ACC Champ Penn State was simply too much for the ACC five person AD committee to overcome. Clemson becomes the lowest ranked team to win it all and the first team with five losses to win the Championship. Prior to last year, no team ranked lower than fourth had ever won it all.

Of course probably the biggest factor that changed college football was the O’Bannon case decided in the summer of ’14. At first this case seemed to have a lot of bark and no bite but once the Power Five realized that instead of fighting the decision in OBannon, they could use it as a recruiting tool to entice the best players to their schools, all gloves were off. This became the deciding factor in the split of the FBS. With the top teams of the FBS schools able to set up lucrative trust funds for their football and basketball students, the gap between those with money and those without was simply too much for mid tier schools to overcome. This, of course, led to the Power Five Mad Grab as it has been called. Oklahoma’s defection to the SEC forced Texas to finally give up its monetary autonomy. Showing my age again I know but man I miss the Red River Rivalry. The ACC thought they had the in road with Notre Dame but SEC Commissioner Sankey’s pitch to Notre Dame that they would receive a 1/12^th share of revenue for five years in return for a ten year surrender of their television rights was simply too much for Notre Dame to refuse. Who doesn’t love SEC money? With Notre Dame playing near the top again, the other thirteen SEC schools’ willingness to give up some of their money to nab Notre Dame has paid dividends. The ACC did pretty well with grabbing Penn State from the BigTen. Penn State isn’t Notre Dame but Coach  Geno Smith has given them a lot of stability. It says a lot to be at a school for ten years when the average stay is 2.75. Of course lately his seat is getting pretty hot. His national championship and four playoff appearances are starting to look very small in the rear view mirror.

Well what should we expect in 2034? I’m not going out on a limb when I say that five of last year’s teams will be in the playoff again. There isn’t a lot of turnover from year to year. What’s that saying? A playoff spot means higher revenue, higher revenue equals higher player trust funds and a championship is like getting five playoff spots. Now folks next year things are going to change drastically. All of the BigTen’s television contracts are up for renewal along with the Big16s. I’m wagering that at least three teams from each conference will swap places. I know we’ve all heard the rumors that the Big16 is trying to put together a package deal that would bring Michigan and Ohio State to the Big16. Can you imagine a conference that will have Michigan, Ohio State, Texas and two time Big16 champ USC in the same conference? It seems too good to be true. Of course no one could have imagined Florida and Georgia’s defections to the ACC two years ago either. Fox said they were going to outspend ESPN and outspend they did. It’s hard to believe there are still some people out there that preferred the old ways of polls, bowl games, and conflicted national champions. College football is definitely at the pinnacle of success as we enter 2034.