Since I won't be around tomorrow, I thought it would be good to get the article out a day early today. Some notes about these predictions. First, I always try to take a historical perspective into my predictions. I don't know how many times I have read a post script article to a predictions article stating "who could have predicted . . ." Well, that's the point of predictions, predicting the things that most people can't and truthfully each year is full of "unpredictable" surprises. If you just look at schedules and what you see on paper, you miss out on so much more. There are psychological factors that always way in to a team's performance. There are always teams that surprise you by doing far more than you thought they would accomplish and teams that fall flat for no readily apparent reason. More than likely it will happen this year and the trick of course is predicting which of those teams will surprise us in both good and bad ways. That being said. Let's begin.
It's that time of year again for the Southeastern Conference predictions and some national predictions as well. Even though this is the first time that the predictions are hitting the blogger website, the annual traditions have been going on now for the better part of a decade. Predictions, of course, can be all over the board and mine usually are. I have hit on some good ones through the years. Most recently I predicted that Alabama would win the SEC West in 2008 but even that pailed to my best prediction which was made just prior to the 2003 season when I predicted that LSU would win the National Championship that year. To put it in perspective, LSU started the season ranked #15 so it was anything but a given that they would be playing for a national championship. Of course, to be fair, I did predict that they would be playing against Virginia Tech in that game. Well the past is the past and now it's time to look to our very near future.
First, when looking at the SEC you have to look at it as two conferences of "have's" and "have nots." The old dynamics of the top powers being in the East, followed by a middling West and then followed again by some Eastern stragglers is no more. For years, the balance between the East and the West was almost perfect. During the years 2002-06 Eastern and Western games were split with the SEC Championship game being the tie breaker. That all ended in In 2008 when power seemed to suddenly shift to the East in dramatic fashion. This was Florida's power run where they were eating up opponents and it combined with Vandy's miracle season when they were ranked and even beat Auburn. Based on that 2008 year, it seemed that the balance had gone so much to the East that it may take the West a few years to catch up. A few years, as it turned out, was one season. The West would get their revenge in the 2009 season by taking back the advantage and then in the 2010 season would deal the East a drubbing the likes of which had not been seen. Three teams in the East, Florida, Kentucky, and Georgia didn't manage to beat one Western opponent. SEC East Champion, South Carolina finished with a 1-3 record against Western opponents. Whether the East can gain back some ground or whether we are seeing a very dominate West again remains to be seen. One thing for me though is that it makes predicting the SEC East a very hard thing to do. No longer can you just automatically pencil Florida in at the top and move Kentucky and Vandy to the bottom. This year's East is set up to provide some odd surprises. The recipe is right for an unknown to emerge and have their own miracle season. Could it be a year that Kentucky sneaks in? Could Tennessee shock all the pundits and be farther along than anyone thinks.
Hey, look. The West is no picnic either. For most of the last decade you could count on either LSU or Auburn being at the top but truthfully the West has always been a hard conference to predict. The SEC West is similar to the NFL in that the differences in all six teams is so minimal that on more than one occassion the team predicted to win has finished at or near the bottom and the team predicted to finish last has won the division title.
Okay, now that my caveats are out there, I guess it's time to put my butt on the line. Let's go to the SEC East first. I do think that the West will continue their domination this year. There are too many question marks and not enough constants to make me believe that the East can get back to even with the SEC West.
The SEC East.
1. SOUTH CAROLINA. I don't feel really good about this prediction. It certainly lines up with some of the national media's beliefs and we shall soon see if it agrees with the upcoming SEC media days. On paper, South Carolina is poised to repeat and get to Atlanta. Perenial power Florida is going through a coaching change and more importantly a coaching philosophy change. That usually indicates a rough year. The only other team that looks as good as South Carolina is Georgia and I just have a feeling that Richt's time at Georgia is quickly running out. Richt is a good coach who always fails to capitalize during the times when a power vacuum is created. Why should this year be any different? What I like about South Carolina is Steve Spurrier's experience, their returning players, their new found experience at playing at a top level and the depth that they have gathered that was not there in years' past. What I don't like about South Carolina. Well, . . . they're South Carolina and they are skilled at finding ways to lose when the pressure is on and of course how can you ignore the soap opera that is Stephen Garcia?
2. KENTUCKY. Yes, I know, I should put down the drugs but it's really not the most outrageous thing that could happen. Coach Joker Phillips made some good progress last season and definitely added to what former coach Rich Brooks did in pulling Kentucky out a mire of scandal and bottom level performance. It's not so much that I think Kentucky is great this year but they have some advantages. One, they didn't pull the worst SEC West schedule they could have gotten. They face powerhouse LSU and then get both of the Mississippis. State should be good this year but they won't be invincible. They get Florida early in the season when the Gators are more likely to stumble. It would only take one or two surprise victories to get Kentucky to the top of the SEC East.
3. FLORIDA. This is a very talented football team. It is from a pure talent perspective, the most talented Eastern conference team and right up there with Alabama and LSU in terms of talent on the field. Florida's incoming coach, Will Muschamp, knows his stuff, knows defense, and is taking on defensive players probably more talented than the ones he left behind in Austin. His offensive coordinator, Charlie Weis isn't exactly a star on the rise but he has proven time and again that he take good offensive talent and get the best out of them. In theory, Florida could be at the top again this year. I don't think that's going to happen this year and here's why. Florida is making a fundamental change in their philosophy. They are going from an offensive minded team to a defensive minded team. This may seem like much 'ado about nothing but it usually affects a team's psychology. Alabama made the switch in 1990. In 1989, Alabama fielded a very powerful offense with a solid defense. The philisophical switch in 1990 resulted in a team that was 10-3 in 1989 to a team that was 7-5 in 1990. Once that switch was acheived though, Alabama went on to lose only one game in the next two years. Florida, I believe, is in the same boat. This will be a rocky year but I think Florida will be back to power by the 2012 season.
4. GEORGIA. By all accounts, the Bulldogs should be the team that is going to represent the SEC East this year. They still have more talent than SEC East defending champion South Carolina. They have a slew of returning talent and they pull the easiest possible schedule of Western opponents. All this should equate to an SEC East title run but again, Richt's Georgia teams of late have a talent of proverbially fumbling at the one yard line. If Richt can't capitalize, then I think he is in his last year of coaching between the hedges. Georgia is one of the original big three of the SEC, (Alabama and Tennessee being the other two). The last time Georgia won a national championship was over thirty years ago. Meanwhile, Alabama has won two, Tennessee has won one, upstart Florida has won three, LSU has won two and Auburn has won one. Georgia fans are abnormally patient fans considering that Georgia is traditional SEC royalty but even their patience has to be wearing thin as they watch South Carolina emerge and Florida rebuild. I think if Georgia stumbles in its September 10th matchup with the Gamecocks, Georgia will not recover.
5. TENNESSEE. The Vols may be farther along than everyone is giving them credit for. Dooley has had an uphill climb ever since accepting the job but he knew what he was getting into. I wouldn't be surprised if Tennessee is a surprise this year and has a respectable season but they are struggling in the talent area, the NCAA is sniffing around which provides nothing but distractions and worst of all, they face this year's Big Three in the SEC West for their western opponents, (Alabama, Arkansas, LSU). None of this can be good. It's gotten so bad that even Vanderbilt believes that they can take on the struggling Volunteers for control of the state. A fifth rank place for the Vols might just be generous.
6. VANDERBILT. Former head coach Bobby Johnson took Vandy to heights they had not seen in decades and just when the 'Dores could start to get a little excited about the future, he was gone but not for a well deserved job at a bigger football program. No, Johnson dusted off his boots and headed into the sunset for retirement. No real good reason was given. After one year, Johnson's assistant, Robbie Caldwell was forced out and in comes James Franklin. This seemed to be a bizarre coaching move. Franklin was all set to become Maryland's head coach. He would have taken over a program that could have competed for ACC Championships in a BCS conference. Was it simply impatience that made him take a job that even Auburn's offensive coordinator, Gus Malzahn was smart enough to turn down? To give credit, Franklin's a good coach and so far, he is showing that he is a great recruiter but Vandy is unlike any other school in the SEC. Good coaches have come and they all go. It is the graveyard of coaches who thought their star was on the rise. It's possible that Vandy could have some success under Franklin and it may even come this year but Franklin's coaching abilities are going to be hard pressed to overcome that every other SEC team he plays will be bigger, stronger, and faster than his. Also, it's not like these other SEC coaches are hacks. SEC coaches are literally a star studded batch of greatness.
The SEC West.
1. ALABAMA. This year it seems like a no brainer but then again, it seemed like a no brainer last year when I predicted a first place finish for the Tide in the SEC West. Alabama's biggest issue going into the season is replacing the Big Three. Gone are Heisman winner Mark Ingram, stud receiver, Julio Jones, and veteran, almost mistake free quarterback, Greg McElroy. Still though, Alabama is finally hitting their stride when it comes to the old stock phrase, "they don't replace, they reload." Alabama will most likely start off the season using a two quarterback tandem and continue the ever lengthening starting job competition through much of September. Trent Richardson replaces Mark Ingram at running back and Alabama has quite a few go to guys at receiver even with Jones gone. More importantly, the weak link with last year's Tide team, the defensive secondary, now have another year under their belt and showed a lot of promise last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tide get to the national title game.
2. LSU. I debated between LSU and Arkansas. A lot of people are calling Arkansas a dark horse team to win the SEC this year and certainly I think it's possible but more to that at #3. As for LSU, I think Miles is finally starting to find himself and his identity at LSU. Last year's victory over Nick Saban's Tide definitely helped him emerge from Saban's shadows, probably more than he did when he won the 2007 National Championship. LSU fields one of the most talented teams in the nation. This year, LSU finds themselves with the pieces in place to make not only an SEC West run but possibly a run at the national title game. Look to the November 5th matchup of LSU at Alabama to decide the SEC West.
3. ARKANSAS. Arkansas seems to be everyone's darling to win the SEC West this year. I'm not buying it. I think Bobby Petrino is an excellent coach and an offensive wizard. I think he is amassing talent that can make a serious run but I'm not sure that talent is quite there yet. Quarterback Tyler Wilson may be a quarterback that is better than last year's Hogs' qb Ryan Mallet. What bothers me about Arkansas is that everyone is touting Arkansas' strength as their veteran receivers. They are veterans and they are talented but last year they continually dropped wide open passes putting the Hogs in a bad position. If they had managed to hang on to the passes last year, I think there is a good chance that Arkansas could have won the SEC West. Greg Childs is an exception but it isn't going to take good defensive coordinators long to figure out that they should double team Childs and take their chances with the spotty receivers left. Meanwhile, Arkansas has to travel to Baton Rouge and Tuscaloosa to face the other two SEC West powerhouses.
4. AUBURN. What are you thinking? How can I put the defending national champions down to fourth on the SEC West depth chart. This seems almost unprecendented. Well it's not. If you want a prior example you have to travel far into the dark depths of SEC history. You have to travel all the way back to . . . last year. Defending champion Alabama finished 4th in the SEC West. Sounds bad but they were 10-3 and only a few points removed from playing in the title game again. I think Auburn is going to be lucky to get to 10-3. They have the coaches and they are getting the talent but one thing we have learned about spread offenses is that they really struggle to replace a great qb. You only have to go to last year and look at Texas and Florida to see how true that is. I once thought that Tim Tebow was the best college football player I had ever seen in my adult lifetime. Now, I wonder if he isn't #2 to Cam Newton. Disassociate all the possible scandal and the real crime is that we were all robbed of watching Newton play for more years at the college level. I'm sure Auburn wishes he had gone to Auburn to begin with and I'm sure Meyer had some second thoughts about not keeping him in Gainesville as he watched the wheels come off the Florida bus last year. Auburn doesn't just lose Newton. They lose a wealth of experience at the top and they lose key members of a great defense. Last year, Auburn benefitted from winning a lot of really tight games. I think they will be lucky to get into tight games with some of the teams they are playing. I think what we will see is that Auburn will lay the groundwork for a possibly title run in 2012 assuming they can get Malzahn to stay one more year.
5. MISSISSIPPI STATE. Ahh State. Here is a team that is making a lot of headway in the SEC West. If there is really a possible Cinderella lurking in the SEC West, stay out of Arkansas and go to Starkville. They get better every year under Dan Mullins but I just don't think State is ready for the big time just yet. There is still at least another year of ground that State needs to make up to catch up with the powers that be in the SEC West.
6. OLE MISS. This isn't a bad Ole Miss team. Houston Nutt's team of last year was in a worse position. I could see the Rebels, (Bears, Toddies or whatever they call themselves now), beating all three of their Eastern opponents and still finish sixth in the SEC West. The problem is someone has to be at the bottom and Ole Miss is the likely team to be there. Nutt's a good coach but not a great coach and he will be facing more talented coaches with more talented teams on his SEC schedule. Nutt's savvy though, who knows? Maybe he will leave Ole Miss midseason for a different team. He probably has agent, Jimmy Sexton placing phone calls as I write this article.
SEC Championship Game.
Alabama over South Carolina.
AND NOW FOR THE EXTRA.
This is the part where I like to make some national predictions.
FSU. I really like FSU this year. If FSU can beat Oklahoma this year, (and I think they will), FSU could be on their way to an ACC championship and a possible national title birth. Last year, FSU played Oklahoma and Miami played Ohio State and it was apparent that both teams still had a ways to go to be of any national significance again. This year I think the 'Noles and 'Canes will win those games and that we are seeing a reemergence of the early 1990s when the Big Three Florida schools ruled the Nation.
TEXAS. Supposedly it was an anomaly. Last year's UT team was a bad year in the middle of the great ones but I have seen this before. I think Texas is down and possibly out. Muschamp's defection may have spoken volumes. I think the Oklahoma-Texas series will switch yet again to Oklahoma and it may be a few years before Texas gets back to prominence, (with or without Mack Brown).
MICHIGAN. Just like the Texas-Oklahoma series, Michigan-Ohio State tends to go in streaks. I think Michigan wins this year and doesn't let go of this series for quite a few years.
RICHT. It's Richt's last year at Georgia. Look for someone else to be coaching the Dawgs come next September. He's a good coach but Georgia deserves great.
NOTRE DAME. We will see more improvement this year but they are still at least a year away from anything significant. Of course there is that old rule that any coach at Notre Dame who hasn't won a championship in their second year never wins a championship.
WISCONSIN. I think Wisconsin will win the Big Ten this year. No, it's no real stretch to write that out.
No comments:
Post a Comment